Welcome, my dear readers, once again to the asylum. Those of you who have been with us for a while probably remember a post from June 2022 called This Mess is Big (here). In it, I covered how the free COVID money sparked inflation and accurately predicted it would worsen. We have covered several times how the root of long-term permanent inflation is the excess production of fiat currency: here, here, and here are just some examples. Ultimately, printing fiat to paper over economic issues is like using a tourniquet on a paper cut. Sure, it will stop the bleeding, but in the end you will lose the arm as a result.
If you don’t already know, the Child Tax Credit (here) instituted in 1997 provides a credit of $2000, with $1600 of it fully refundable, for every child under the age of 17 in a home. Unlike Earned Income Credit, that works on a bell curve and doesn’t qualify people with no income, then pays out the most for low income and pays out a little for low moderate income and fazes out depending on how many children you have, and totally ending for large families around 60K a year (here), the Child Tax Credit is just refundable. If you have two children and have zero income, you would still receive a $3200 tax return because you have two children. Between the two, the idea is to raise needy families out of poverty. What really happens is you get a big spike in used car prices from late February to the middle of April, better total income numbers for a chart, and a bump in inflation.
The Child Tax Credit was the government’s mechanism to send out much of the COVID money. They temporarily expanded the child tax credit to $3000 per child, made it fully refundable, and sent $1400 out for each child before tax filing (here). This way, they could send out checks of prepaid Child Tax Credit, and when people filed their tax returns, they would still get the $1600 per child they were used to. Between advanced Child Tax Credits, economic impact payments, and business relief due to unnecessary and harmful lockdowns, inflation went vertical shortly after the world opened back up as the money supply chart looked like a hockey stick. Sadly, no matter what politicized lie the government publishes for inflation numbers, we still haven’t seen the end to the last round of massive payments (here). This is a frustrating and concerning situation.
As you know, we are in an election year, and it seems the incumbent is in serious trouble, more so now that it is the Queen of Word Salad, Kamala Harris, probably the least qualified person to ever get this far in an election. Seriously, while they have done a 180 and fallen in line, nobody in the Democratic Party or the establishment-owned mainstream media wants the diversity hire to be their candidate. Unfortunately, they have painted themselves into a corner. As a result, I have been waiting for the big giveaway ever since Congress discovered a mechanism to give people loads of cash during COVID-19. Every few months, someone talks about inflation relief or that relief (here, here, and here). I was even watching a bill that passed the House of Representatives 357–70 (here) to enlarge and extend the Child Tax Credit. However, it went to the Senate, and we stopped hearing about it. I figured it died in committee. Unfortunately, it did not and is back. It appears that it was held to be used as a weapon in the later parts of this election year.
This bill, H. R. 7024, would extend the COVID Child Tax Credit to a fully refundable $3000 through 2022, 2023, 2024, and 2025 (here). Since the 2022 and 2023 tax seasons are passed, the bill would use the same IRS mechanism used during COVID to send a lump sum payment to each qualifying filer’s refund preference. Please note, I have all the children and this bill would put over $20,000 as a lump sum in my pocket all at once and guarantee my tax returns are $18,000+ for the next two years. I am horrified by this bill and want it stopped. Seriously, they say it is for the children, but any temporary benefit this bill provides will be entirely offset by the inflation caused by sending out that much more money generated out of nowhere. This is more of the definition of insanity garbage, where throwing money at a problem causes the problem, requiring more of the cure over and over, always exacerbating the problem and spending more money.
Sadly, your average non-player character (NPC) on the street is too stupid, greedy, or ignorant to understand the full ramifications of all this “free” money. The result is the Democrats now have a weapon that presents a win-win situation for them even if this passed the House with massive bipartisan support. The narrative that is unfolding and will continue to unfold is that the greedy rich Republicans are stopping the altruistic, generous Democrats from helping out the poor underprivileged children with some cash in these hard financial times. This is because the Republicans hate your kids (here and here), giving them one weapon. If the Republicans do crumble, then the Democrats can tout that they won this crucial support against evil Republican opposition in the 11th hour. So, like I said, it is a win-win for the blue team.
Sadly, I expect this will pass, if not now, as soon as possible, because I think the establishment knows what it is doing, and it is dastardly. There is strong opposition to the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) (here), so much so that it is impossible to implement currently. How does the government always overcome resistance to its desired policies? If you said major tragedies and cataclysmic events, then you are correct. All they have to do is keep borrowing, spending, and printing, and eventually, they will get a full default on the Fiat dollar and near total economic collapse. It is then Hegelian dialectic time writ large to save the day (here). The only possible way to save us will be the institution of the CBDC because real money (gold and silver) is far too liberating and honestly hasn’t been cool since the 19th century. In the face of everything falling apart and major cities burning in the chaos of economic collapse, the NPC sheeple will fall in line, or enough of them will that anyone who objects is now a conspiracy theorist nut. That is how it works with almost everything, and before you doubt it, please read The Typical Objections (here). They can, they have, and they will again.
Please call your Senators and tell them how much you oppose this legislation. Point out the debt at 35 trillion dollars and the outstanding unfunded liabilities in the hundreds of trillions. Tell them we can’t afford it, and it will ultimately do far more harm than good. It would be nice to do these things, but actions have consequences, and there is far too much fiat floating around as it is.
Proverbs 13:11
11Wealth gained hastily will dwindle,
but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.
God Bless you
-Sam