Ukraine in the Membrane

Insane in the Brain if you Believe the Media

Welcome, my dear readers.  This week we will talk about Russia and Ukraine.  While the stories of the ghost of Kiev, Miss Ukraine with a rifle, and all the other feel-good things opened up like a fire hose in the news are at best a 50/50 chance they are true vs totally made up propaganda.  I have seen the totally hyperbolic reporting, the lies, and nonsense on social media about the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  As such, I thought we might dig into that a bit this week.  Clearly, it is a bad thing for there to be war and people dying, it is bad for a big country to be invading a little country, and the entire situation is kind of a shit show.  The real questions to ask, that are not being asked or are and then being lied about, are as follows:

1.       What events lead up to Russia feeling it needed to invade Ukraine?

2.       Why after thirty years of independence is Russia invading Ukraine now?

3.       Is there anything that could have been done within reason to have prevented the invasion?

4.       Now that Russia has invaded Ukraine, what are we doing?

5.       Will our current actions lead to our desired outcome?

6.       If not, is there anything we can do short of a full-on hot ground war with Russia to see the outcome we desire?

I will try to at least touch on these points, but before I do, please don’t take this paper as an endorsement of either side.  It isn’t intended to be.  This paper is just meant to examine what facts we can verify objectively so that you, my readers, and honestly, I in my research, can try and dispassionately understand what is going on, how we got here, and what action we should support as a result of where we find ourselves.

As a sovereign independent nation, the Ukraine has only existed since the early 90s. Before that, it was never an independent state nor did the region ever have an ethnically homogenous people.  From well before the middle ages, various countries constantly exchanged various parts of the nation we now call Ukraine, from Mongol hordes, Polish, Ottomans, and others ,including the Russians and in truth most of the eastern half of the nation, to this day, identify as Russian (here).  Ukraine got its currently recognized boarders in the early days of the Soviet Union when Lenin came to power. However, due to political strife based in various ethnic groups, and other problems, the region wasn’t successfully turned into a satellite state under the Soviet system until the brutality of Stalin (here), where somewhere between 15-50 million people were killed to make the workers paradise and punish decent.  Even then, ethnically eastern Ukraine identified as Russian.  The people of the Donbas and Crimea regions are Russian linguistically, culturally, and are fairly homogenous as a people (here and here).  I do realize that there was no America before 1776 and new nations can be born. So, its beginning in 1991 isn’t necessarily a strike against it.  It is, however, foolish and misinformed to think that Ukraine is a united country.  Ukraine has been more divided than the U.S. currently is since 2014.

Ukraine has been in an on-and-off civil war since 2014, when by many accounts the United States helped to topple a democratically elected government (that was friendly to Russia) and install actual real life Nazis (Like, they hate Jews and everything.) to power. But, hey! They hate Russia and will let the U.S. do what it wants (here, here, here, and here), so much so that U.S. Senator John Kerry even met with Nazi leaders.  The eastern half of the country really never went along and so they started a bit of a shooting war between the United States and NATO-backed Nazis in western Ukraine and Russian-backed Ukrainian Russians in the eastern part of the country.  Essentially, when the democratically elected government was toppled, half the country didn’t go along and the revolution/coupe/whatever turned into a shooting civil war, where thousands were killed.  Europe, having been laid waste twice in the past century, wasn’t into having a hot war that close.  So, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) began negotiating a cease-fire, if not actual peace accord, after the first Minsk Accord failed due to the Nazis of western Ukraine attempting to commit genocide of the Russian population of eastern Ukraine after the 2014 revolution (here, here, and here).  Since that time, they were able to strike up Minsk II agreements.  What they say is irrelevant because, while they did deescalate the conflict, both sides have violated them repeatedly, both sides have committed atrocities, there has been on-and-off fighting, and since 2014, no one group has actually been in control of a very unstable Ukraine.

I am sure the U.S.’s goal in toppling the pro-Russian government in 2014 was to deny them access to ports on the black sea and Ukraine’s industry.  If you go searching, there are a lot of apologists since last week who will say that the U.S. had nothing to do with the revolution in 2014 or that the ‘revolution on dignity’, I think is what they are calling it, wasn’t lead by Nazi groups actively wearing SS unit designators. But, that is only because it no longer fits the narrative. As a result, it is no longer true, regardless of how much objective proof exists.  That doesn’t change the fact that even after the Cold War, the U.S. has largely acted like it never ended and has done almost every thing it could to stifle Russia’s growth and development since the fall of communism.  Please note, most of this was economic and not directly military in nature.  It is like the containment strategy to stop the spread of communism never ended (except for in American universities and public schools).  There are tons of examples. I think part of the total freak out and 4 years of ludicrous lies about Trump had a lot to do with early overtures he made to Russia trying to normalize our relations and set a tone for peace, without compromising our actual interests (here, here, and here).

Unfortunately, the machine wants to keep our interests fluid and cannot risk having them narrowed to things that actually affect our country.  The emphasis was always military intimidation and making sure we had as many bases and troops on their border as possible (here, here, and here).  This continuation of Cold War strategies are much of what gave rise to Putin because the average Russian wanted a leader who would look out for them as they watched the West surround them with bases and attempt to exploit their resources, rather than welcome them into the capitalistic, democratic west (here, here, and here).  The West had a shot at a different future with Boris Yeltsin, but it just had to dominate and control.  Russia was down, but still too proud for that. So, we got a less agreeable replacement.

As a summary to this point, after WWI, Russia found itself in control of all of the region we now call Ukraine. Part had been Russian for hundreds of years and part was more recently obtained.  When Lenin came to power, he structured the region into a vassal state called Ukraine with no regard for the peoples or diverging histories of the region.  At that point there were problems and the not-ethnically-Russian people didn’t like it and resisted.  After that, Stalin crushed them into compliance.  Then, the Soviet Union falls in 1991 and all the satellite states are declared independent countries with no regard for their peoples or geography.  All is well, until 2014, when a democratically elected pro-Russia government is overthrown by Nazis who then try and genocide all the ethnically-Russian people, and the ethnically-Russian people don’t like it. So, they fight back, and of course Russia backs them, in part probably because they are really Russians, and in greater part because they really do need black sea ports (probably mostly the ports).  Much of this is very much like Georgia. Russia needs resources located there, and the people are largely Russian and want to go back (at least in parts of the country).  At that point, European leadership steps in and they put up a paper wall that everyone tends to shoot through from time to time, and mostly leaves the nation divided.  All the while, the ethnically-Russian people of western Ukraine beg to rejoin Russia from time to time, but are unsuccessful due to international pressure more than anything.

That gets us up to present or close to it.  In December 2021, Russia asks the West for some assurance of security (here, here, and here).  Russia asked that:

1.       That troops be pulled off its border

2.       That the West stop conducting War games right on the boarder

3.       That the West stop expanding NATO in a manner that is encircling Russia

4.       That there be a ban on sending warships and aircraft to areas from where they can strike each other’s territory

The news reported these as tough and unreasonable demands.  They not only seam reasonable to me, but also seem to echo, rather closely, demands Western nations have made of other countries on a regular basis.  France and Great Britain were willing to talk and address Russia’s concerns until the United States said no (here).  Then, the media goes crazy, talking about Putin’s unhinged speech where he talks about Ukraine (here, here, and here).  While you don’t have to agree with him or think he is right, to call it unhinged or insane either means you are a liar or haven’t listened to a translation (here).  In it, he lays out what seems to be a rational case for his actions, and I am sure it is, from his point of view.  My only point here is that it is dangerous for the Western media to so grossly mischaracterize his speech and render the common people more misinformed.  

We are at a point where Russia felt cut off and backed into a corner with nation states actively trying to undermine them. So, they attacked Ukraine.  The thing is, I really don’t think that originally, they intended to invade.  I think they were just acting tough to reassure the ethnic-Russians in the eastern Ukraine and keep access to their ports.  I think with the level of vitriol and accusation coming out of D.C., Putin saw an opportunity to turn the tables on a weakling president.  After 20 years of war for nothing in the Middle East, with trillions of dollars wasted and thousands of lives lost, for exactly zero progress in Afghanistan (I called this twenty years ago, at the start.), an Iraq more unstable and dangerous than ever before, and with more terrorists that hate us because our drones killed their sister, cousin, wife, or whoever at a wedding.  There is no political will for another ground war at this time in America, especially one that only affects our interests in the most esoteric of ways.  I think Putin knows this and decided to cram all the Biden administration’s tough talk (here, here, and here) right down their gullet.

I honestly think Russia invaded Ukraine specifically to make Biden look even weaker and more impotent than he did already. The world responded with only sanctions and kicks Russia out of SWIFT.  I will tell you now, Russia doesn’t care and after a short-term inconvenience, Russia will prosper much more under the “sanctions” and without SWIFT than it did under them.  The media either doesn’t know or just refuses to acknowledge that Russia and China have been setting up the economic framework to function fully and prosperously totally outside of Western influence.  Russia has continued to strengthen ties to China (mostly because the West hasn’t allowed many other opportunities), and Russia totally divested its Sovereign Wealth Fund of U.S. Dollars (here). So, it isn’t holding them as reserves anymore at all.  China announced its goal to challenge the Dollar as a reserve currency in 2009 (here) and since that time they have been seriously working towards that goal.  In 2015, China launched Cross-Border Interbank Payment System. This allows them to clear international transactions outside of the U.S. Dollar or the influence of the IMF or World Bank (here and here).  Even before that, China has been working on their new silk road trade organization (that has used their clearance system since 2015).  The goal of the new trade organization is specifically to bypass the West’s ability affect the members’ trade (here, here, and here).  China’s organization encompasses countries in Europe, Africa, South America, and Asia, totaling 139 members (here).  This trade organization isn’t denominated in Dollars, doesn’t use Western clearinghouses exclusively, and doesn’t care about Western sanctions.  I am sure you heard about the opening of this year’s Winter Olympics. I personally think, more than anything, after years of building the economic infrastructure, China and Russia were sending a message (here).  Then, add to that the fact that Europe needs Russian resources far more than Russia needs European customers.  Seriously, over 40% of all Europe’s natural gas comes from Russia and some of the big players like Germany rely on it for a full 50% of their energy (here).  Russia loses some funds, provided they don’t just sift those contracts out to a belt and road member contract, while Europe suffers rolling blackouts and people freeze to death for lack of energy.

At this point, I don’t think Europe will maintain these sanctions in practice very long. I don’t think they can.  Even if they do, I think it will just be Russian resources at higher prices through middlemen because once Russia sells its natural gas or whatever else to another member through the belt and road organization, that country can sell it on any market it wants.  At this point, I don’t think it matters if Putin is a devil, angel, or just a man. It is my belief he has seriously outplayed the West.  I don’t think anyone wants a hot war (If you do, you are insane.) and short of that, I don’t think there is really anything anyone can do about Ukraine.  I figure Russia will go in, set up a government devoid of Nazis, recognize a couple of new ethnically-Russian states, and then go home.  This isn’t a country we can interdict ports (up until just recently, seen universally as an act of war) without starting a shooting war, and I honestly don’t think anyone in the West wants that.

My take is this: I think the greater threat is already too far developed to stop, or perhaps effectively counter, in that China, Russia, Iran, and really any other country in the world no longer needs us or our dollars to trade if they don’t want to use them or we set too high a requirement.  Next to the rising Sino-Russian economic block, Ukraine is meaningless in all but that it will show the world what a paper tiger the U.S. has become. But, they were figuring that out anyway.  The best case is we rattle our saber, set sanctions to make ourselves feel better, then in a few weeks or a month Russia does what it wants to do in Ukraine and then goes home.  Then, things normalize after a few months and we keep clicking away into oblivion without help.  Outside of that, all the possibilities are bad.  We rattle our sabers and set up sanctions.  Then Russia and China show the world how impotent those sanctions are, as Europeans suffer blackouts and frozen homes for lack of Russian gas.  Germany and others are members of China’s belt and road, so they get an offer to buy Russian gas through that exchange, off the books of the rest of the West.  You think Germany will let its people suffer?  We set a precedent with a major Western power, not only breaking with the West, but with the petrodollar and trading in another currency.  At that point, it may be fast or slow, but the dominos will start to fall.  It may not be this exactly, but it is an example of any number of scenarios that would seriously damage the Dollar’s reserve status.  With our debt, if that happens, Zimbabwe hasn’t seen inflation yet.  The last option is we get into a real hot shooting war with Russia but that isn’t Russia alone, as we are a member of NATO. Russia is a member of Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) that includes several other nations (here), whose key difference with NATO is their members fully fund their own militaries at levels to defend their national interest, where most NATO members do not and count on American Bodies.  Russia also has several defense agreements with China (here). So, it will be a world war.  Unfortunately, this time, we don’t have the industrial base or an ability to quickly stand one up. Nothing good comes from this, no matter how you look at it, and let’s just hope it stops at nothing good and doesn’t go to much worse.

If you take nothing else away from this week I hope you realize now that the situation in Ukraine is much more complex and nuanced than the media would have you believe.  There really aren’t any “good guys” in this war of Russians Vs. Nazis, and no good can come from American involvement.  Seriously as a Nation we have already done enough most of it not good in the region.

Matthew 24:36-44

36 "But about that day or hour no one knows, not even the angels in heaven, nor the Son, but only the Father. 37 As it was in the days of Noah, so it will be at the coming of the Son of Man. 38 For in the days before the flood, people were eating and drinking, marrying and giving in marriage, up to the day Noah entered the ark; 39 and they knew nothing about what would happen until the flood came and took them all away. That is how it will be at the coming of the Son of Man. 40 Two men will be in the field; one will be taken and the other left. 41 Two women will be grinding with a hand mill; one will be taken and the other left. 42 "Therefore keep watch, because you do not know on what day your Lord will come. 43 But understand this: If the owner of the house had known at what time of night the thief was coming, he would have kept watch and would not have let his house be broken into. 44 So you also must be ready, because the Son of Man will come at an hour when you do not expect him.”

God bless you,

-Sam

Update:              

In the time between this article going to the editor and now we know for a fact that ghost of Kiev, Miss Ukraine with a rifle, Defiance at Snake Island, and several other reports were completely fabricated propaganda.  It is more important that ever that we look at everything going on with a critical eye.  When we are moved from reason to emotion (and that is the point of propaganda) we give up self-control to those who control our emotions.  No good ever comes from that.

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