The United States isn't in Control
of The Pivot or Anything Else Really
Hello, dear readers, and welcome yet again to my newsletter. While the western powers of the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) are engaged in tightening their grip on their own populations in the name of inclusivity and climate change by putting soccer moms on terror lists, encouraging politically motivated social unrest by unequal prosecution, and finding patsies to commit the crimes the FBI sets up (here, here, and here), Russia and China have been busy winning a war we don’t even fully acknowledge as happening yet. This war isn’t one of tanks, plans, and men. It is an economic war of supply lines, influence, and markets. The worst part is that this war is playing out almost exactly as the father of geopolitics, Halford Mackinder of the Royal Geographic Society, wrote in 1904 where he postulated that there was a pivot area for power in the world that was the vast swaths of the Asian interior not accessible by sea that was larger and therefore more potentially rich than another place in the world, and with the advent of rail was on the cusp of being industrially accessible. He postulated that if any nation were to control and exploit the resources of that region it would then be able to control the world-island (term referring to international markets), if by no other method than by controlling the flow of resources (here).
Fortunately, this process of Russian economic dominance was slowed first by the poor management of Tsarist Russia that was more interested in royal opulence than economic expansion and then by the short sightedness, corruption, and inefficiencies of Communism (here and here). China suffered much the same fate economically as Russia until the last quarter of the 20th century. Through loosening socialist controls on the economy, the Chinese have expanded into a serious financial powerhouse with eyes on global dominance and since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has become a capitalist country, if not a free market one (here and here). These two facts in the last 30 years have allowed two countries who had little impact on global trade of raw materials, fuel, or finished goods in 1976 to become the backbone of the global economy by 2000, with the entire world relying on their exports of raw material, fuel, and finished goods (here and here). In a way, Russia and China are already proving Halford Mackinder’s theory correct in that while Europe is sanctioning Russia in regards to their war in the Ukraine, they are not sanctioning the single biggest export and cash cow for Russia and that is fuel. Not only is Europe not sanctioning the fuel, but they have capitulated and are buying that fuel in Russian Rubles, necessitating the need to sell an equivalent value of goods into Russia in order to obtain the needed Rubles (here and here). This has created an environment where EU and US sanctions are doing little, if any, harm while (as I have said in the past) driving China and Russia closer together. This has also resulted in a defense pact between China and Russia specifically geared towards confronting the West in a war, should it come to that (here).
From a trade standpoint, the new closeness between China and Russia has caused Russia to take full advantage of China’s belt and road trade network of over 150 countries. Essentially, anything Russia wants to sell gets sold to China where it is then exported to the global market as Chinese goods and then Russia can import whatever it wants through China (here and here). Between Russia’s China arrangement and the EU being forced to trade both import and export to obtain Russian fuel in Rubles, all the sanctions are rendered impotent and little more than a geo-political virtue signal. This is exacerbated by Russia’s occasional flex just to remind Europe of how dependent they are on Russia by the random closing of the Nord stream pipelines for maintenance or not coming out of maintenance on time (here and here). It may be legitimate, but it feels more like a subtle reminder of who is in control to me. The worst part is, even in the face of a possibly getting cut off from Russian gas or having to go against the EU and\or The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Germany only halted its efforts to shut down nuclear power stations, with only 3 remaining operational, leaving itself more vulnerable (here).
The US, on the other hand, has drawn away from energy production opting instead to try to become more dependent on unfriendly foreign nations for our energy needs (here and here). Worse, the US has outsourced so much of our production, especially that of electronics and computer components, to China that the US couldn’t provide sufficient spare parts or logistically replace material in a war with China (here). As anyone with half a mind knows, wars are completely won and lost by economics and logistics. Lives are cheap and expendable, but materiel is expensive and harder to replace. Without food, ammo, tanks, guns, planes, and in modern times complicated electronics, no military can fight. Since China supplies most of the components for our entire electronics industry, we would rapidly lose the ability to replace high-tech gear and vehicles in the face of combat losses. I think China knows this and I think they actually planned for it and as a result China knows we can not realistically war with them over Taiwan or anything else. The US is making efforts to bring some of that manufacturing back home, but it will be a slow process taking years (here). As a result, if we are being honest, should China move to retake Taiwan, there is little to nothing the US could legitimately do about it without causing irreparable and possibly fatal damage to itself. With the defense pact between China and Russia, not only would NATO find itself in a two front war, but will also find that the US industrial might that enabled victory in past wars is little more than a shell of what it was, while nearly all western combatants will be cut off from lithium, titanium, and rare earth metals to fuel what little industry remains to produce the high-tech weapons as most of the known deposits of those resources are located inside Russia and China (here, here and here). If China were to invade Taiwan, we could rattle our saber, slap them with sanctions as ineffective as those on Russia, but we couldn’t even supply the Taiwanese with logistics support because that would require running Chinese blockades, risking war, and we wouldn’t have a reliable way to replenish arms sent to the island if we could get them there. I suppose we could fight, but I think anyone who has seriously looked at the facts can see that is a losing proposition, even if we win.
The truth is it didn’t have to be this way and only is because of the environmentalist green agenda. We have seriously cut back local carbon emissions from industry by finding ways to engage in cleaner manufacturing techniques, but even more than that we just exported the production to other countries (namely China), saving us the cost of cleaner manufacturing methods and a giant virtue signal about how dirty the Chinese were (making all of our stuff). Since World War II, the West has totally painted itself into a corner in regards to other powerful nations, as it pulled its own teeth. What we are reaping now isn’t a Biden thing, or a Trump thing. It is the culmination of 51 years of mismanagement and shortcuts by a failing state and society.
We can turn it around, but to do so will require we get humble and responsible for a couple decades as we rebuild our ability to produce and rebuild our international reputation from wannabe overlord to friendly trade partner. Unfortunately, I don don’t see that the wisdom or political will for such a course exists in the US. So, if things escalate further, I fear what the parties will do to avoid losing. I am afraid they will make it a draw where there are no winners and few survivors.
James 3:13
Who is wise and understanding among you? By his good conduct let him show his works in the meekness of wisdom.
God Bless you!
-Sam
As you know, Russia and China are presently "allies of convenience" along the lines of "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" - the U.S. being their common enemy. Of course China's long-term plan is to dominate Russia... dominate the world... and Russia knows this.
The great tragedy (well... in terms of foreign relations) of Deep State primacy in the U.S. is that it's linked with the UK and European Deep State. The players are "allied." And of course at the top of the pyramid it's more about wealth and power and going along to get along - and PERSONALLY prosper - than it is about any sort of intellectual philosophy.
The DANGEROUS dichotomy is how so many of OUR elites are business partners with CHINA'S elites. While our Deep State truly DOES see Putin's Russia in black and white terms as an enemy (and of course they've MADE Russia an enemy) there's basically a schizophrenic "relationship" between the U.S. and China because SO MANY OF OUR ELITES are either in thrall to China OR mistakenly view themselves as "partners" with China.
Now... back to Russia... of course the American Deep State cares nothing for the interests of the American People and both fear and hold contempt for the American middle class they see (correctly) as their only threat domestically... BUT IF THEY DID REPRESENT AMERICAN INTERESTS instead of their own wealth and power we'd be ALLIED with RUSSIA today. At this point in history RUSSIA is Byzantium. RUSSIA is the Eastern Roman Empire. RUSSIA is the repository of any hope of reviving the traditional Western model that grew out of Western cultural norms.
As to Europe... well... Western Europe is a shit show in terms of RUSHING TOWARDS cultural suicide. Beyond that... Europe has long been a BURDEN upon us. At the same time Germany (in particularly in terms of Europe) has long been one of the nationals "hollowing out" the U.S. industrial basis. Germany on the high end... China on the lower end.
Yes. Both China and Russia have been winning. (Of course... how could they NOT win when their "opponent" is largely controlled by those seeking the destruction of traditional America... the Constitution... our social and cultural values... our economic primacy as INDIVIDUALS vs. foreign INDIVIDUALS...)
Yes. Russia is more "capitalist" than the U.S. at this point. And yes... agreed... there's a great deal of nuance when we discuss concepts such as "capitalism" and "free markets" whether we're talking Russia or the U.S.
As for Taiwan... all I'll say is this: I hope they have nukes. Having nukes and reliable delivery systems represent their best hope for remaining a stand-alone nation-state.
"What we are reaping now isn’t a Biden thing, or a Trump thing. It is the culmination of 51 years of mismanagement and shortcuts by a failing state and society."
Yep. Agreed.