Recap and Update on Ukraine

There are no Good Guys and Russia is Winning.

Welcome, my dear readers, once again into the asylum.  This week, we will be revisiting Ukraine.  I haven’t talked so much about it recently because, other than how many billions Sodom on the Potomac was wasting there over the last few months, there wasn’t much to discuss.  There was the Wagner Group squabble, but it lasted less than 24 hours and let’s be real, however much money or whatever the head was offered by the west, his soldiers are primarily Russian, as are their families. So, I knew it wouldn’t be a long lasting or big deal and it wasn’t.  Early on, I wrote extensively about the war and its ramifications for Americans and the West in general.

Let’s recap for folks that haven’t been following.  First, the United States (US) and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) picked this fight, and it didn’t have to happen.  Like so many things, from Pearl Harbor to 9/11, the US is like the schoolhouse bully that constantly picks on weaker kids, forces them to follow arbitrary rules, makes constant demands for them to denigrate themselves, and if they don’t obey it beats them up and takes their lunch money.  This is the same bully that, when one of the weaker kids finally takes a cheap shot (the only shot they have), gets all their buddies together and beats the little guy into a coma.  To make matters worse, the US lies about it and gets away with it.  That is how America has acted on the world stage since the end of WWII.  It is a painful realization.

The truth is, in late December 2021 and January 2022, Putin aired valid grievances with the West.  These pertained to the encirclement of Russia with military bases, military aircraft flying far too close to Russia’s border, the genocide of ethnically Russian Ukrainians by Ukrainian Nazis (like real Hitler-loving, Russia-hating, white-supremacist Nazis), the failure of the Minsk Accords, and Russian access to the Black Sea.  None of this would have ever been a problem, at least in Ukraine, had the US not sponsored a regime change in Ukraine in 2014, where a democratically elected president was overthrown by militant Nazi militias with US support.  The president was very popular and was trying to stay as neutral as possible and refused to allow Western companies access to build a pipeline from Turkey to Europe through Ukraine since there were already deals in place with existing Russian pipelines. 

The West, led by the US, did what it always does, replaced the government with a puppet that would obey regardless of the type of government.  Just as the US toppled the secular democratic government of Iran to install a brutal dictator in the Shah of Iran.  The brutality of the Shah’s government led to the rise of the Ayatollah Khomeini and the founding of the theocracy in Iran in preference to the oppression of the Shah (here, here, and here).  This was essentially because the democratically elected Prime Minister of Iran wanted the benefit of Iran’s oil to not be shipped overseas by multi-national corporations.  History of the modern world, disobey the US and you are removed or isolated.

Back to the topic at hand. The regime change in Ukraine led to the now ruling Nazis beginning a genocide of the ethnic Russian majorities in the eastern provinces of Ukraine.  This caused the regions of Donetsk and Luhansk to declare independence, elect their own parliaments, and take up arms in support of that independence.  By 2015, Ukraine was embroiled in a civil war with the central government in Kiev trying to regain control of the eastern provinces that wished to leave the country.  This resulted in Europe trying to negotiate peace with the Minsk Accords 1 & 2. Unfortunately, neither side really abided by the agreements (mostly because they didn’t agree as much as got told this is how it was going to be by Western powers).  You must understand that since 2015, the people of Donetsk and Luhansk haven’t considered themselves Ukrainians.  By 2022, Eastern Ukraine had been in an on-and-off Hot War for 7 years, and mostly self-governing as independent nations that desired closer ties with Russia, and had on several occasions asked to be re-absorbed into Russia.

Against this back drop, NATO continues its aggressive expansion to surround and exclude Russia and by 2022, Putin has had enough and formally lists his issues with the West.  France, Germany, Britain, and Ukraine are all willing to talk and see if there was a way to resolve the concerns peacefully (Note, it isn’t appeasement when you are the aggressor).  Unfortunately, the Biden Administration refused and used its influence to stop any chance of negotiation.  Then, President Biden spent the next two months publicly berating Putin and daring him to act.  We then got an invasion that quickly achieved all of Russia’s goals, largely because of local support in eastern Ukraine.  (I didn’t include a lot of links here because it is a recap. You can read my original papers with tons of sources here, here, and here).

This brings us to today. Russia, having mostly achieved its stated goals in Ukraine, hasn’t done anything in months except consolidate the eastern Ukrainian provinces that it annexed.  This acquisition of land was at the request of the local population because regardless, as an independent nation or part of Russia, it was all ok as long as they were no longer Ukrainian (here).  As a Libertarian, I think it is immoral to force a group of people to associate with another group of people against their will, and it is just as immoral to hinder association by groups of people who wish to do so.  Sadly, history, since the beginning of time, says nations are made when a group of people both declare their independence from a larger group of people and then can enforce the separation by force of arms.  For the eight years leading up to the Russian invasion, the people of the People's Republics of Luhansk and Donetsk largely welcomed with open arms.

For the first time, NATO seems to have come to its senses, realizing, what I said in early 2022, that Ukraine can’t win and it is time to start negotiating concessions of land to end the war (here). However, the very next day, he recanted, sort of (here).  The fact that there are even hints of sense coming from NATO indicates there is a loss of support for this proxy adventure.  It makes me wonder, is it the fact that more and more information is getting out that Volodymyr Zelenskyy is a tyrant and appears to be pocketing significant quantities of aid money (here, here, and here)?  Is it the billions of dollars in weapons winding up on the black markets of the dark web (here, here, and here)?  Could the change of heart be that NATO countries have given to the point there are shortages of weapons and ammo for their own troops (here, here, and here)?  I don’t know. It is probably a combination of those things.  Let’s hope that the West decides there are no good guys in the Ukrainian conflict (There are not.) and it isn’t our business, so we can take a step back from the brink of WWIII.

John 16:33

I have told you these things, so that in me you may have peace. In this world you will have trouble. But take heart! I have overcome the world.

God Bless you

-Sam