Welcome, once again, to the Asylum. It is getting crazier than ever before in this lunatic world we live in. I have to ask, are you ready? Do you have a plan? Do you have a team? If you can’t answer at least two out of three of those questions ‘yes’ than the chances of you being dead in the next 24 months are much higher than I, or I am sure you, would like. I am not trying to scare you as much as wake you up. Here in America at least there is still a little time to prepare. That time has passed in other parts of the world. There is still a chance that we as Americans will get off easier but I am not holding my breath, especially if China succeeds in killing the petrodollar (and it looks like they will), since Saudi Arabia is actively looking to join the BRICS trading block (here and here). I am sure where Saudi Arabia goes so goes the rest of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as well.
Our two big threats right now are nuclear annihilation and famine on a scale not seen before outside of the third world. There is no way to know the minds of madness running the governments of either side. So, we don’t really have a way to gauge what will be the tipping point or how likely it really is. We can just watch tensions rise and hope it doesn’t happen. The coming famine, however, is much more certain. At this point it’s just a question of degrees. What I do know is in the last 24 months we have all seen empty sections of grocery stores, prices increase, and selection decrease. This trend will continue and it is not only possible but likely that in the next 12 to 18 months here in America the food stores will be empty, or very sparse, with what is there being more expensive than the average person can afford.
I say this because we are already seeing it, with many American homes already skipping meals to contend with current food inflation (here and here). Food bank utilization is way up (here), with many having to severely ration access, and many food banks are shutting down because they can’t get food (here). Farm production is down and record numbers of food processing facilities have been damaged due to fire or other accident this year (here). We have also seen problems with both national and international supply chains limiting food movement, delivery, and production both at home and around the world (here). Due to weather, war, and anti-climate change policies, global food production is also far below normal levels (here, here, and here).
Many places in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia are already in the beginning or on the cusp of legitimate famine (here, here, and here). When so many are currently without food, and we add to that poor harvests around the world including America for 2022 (here and here), the fact that even domestically much of what is harvested is spoiling before it can reach the market due to logistical problems, and millions of birds and other livestock have been culled on an epic scale for various reasons (here, here, and here). All of these problems will be exacerbated by the cost and availability of fuel in the very near future. As of the time of writing there are just 25 days’ worth of diesel fuel left in the country and at current consumption rates we are not bringing it in fast enough to replace consumption. So, we will run out (here). If there is no diesel, than we can’t ship anything by train, truck, or barge. It all just stops and nothing moves. The ultimate result is a perfect storm for global food shortages, even in previously immune industrialized nations, unlike anything seen in over a hundred years.
In the best-case scenarios at this time, there will still be food, but due to inflation and rising energy costs everyone except the absolute richest will have to make serious sacrifices and more people will be choosing to skip meals or entire days of eating so they can have gas for work or heat their homes, dragging the poor into third world poverty and all levels of the middle class into or below current American poverty. It may get so bad that even the wealthy, but not super rich, are reduced and forced to make current middleclass choices that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago. In the best case, there will be food but it will be limited and we will see prices that completely destroy family economies across the nation (here), greatly reducing standards of living. In the worst case, there won’t be enough food at any price and as a result no one will be able to buy enough no matter how much money they have to spend, and there will be wide-spread starvation. If you don’t grow it, hunt it, and can defend it, you won’t likely have much in the way of food. Either scenario will lead to violent unrest, they could both lead to the total destruction of the economy, and the worst case will result in the end of society and the world as we know it.
This will reduce everyone’s standard of living. Honestly, the die has been cast and one of these two outcomes is coming to America. I say this because food doesn’t just appear. Either you produce enough in the 6-12 months before for the following 9-12 months or you don’t. The world in general, and America in particular, hasn’t produced sufficient food. So, we will face a season of insufficient food. The problem is nothing is being done to alleviate the issue and ensure we produce sufficient food going forward. As a matter of fact, to fight climate change the current administration has put policies in place that hinder our ability to produce food. Federal officials are restricting water for irrigation, especially in places like California (here, here and here). When the emergency of the Ukraine was made clear, the National Grain and Feed Association noted the US has nearly twice as many tillable acres laying fallow under the Conservation Reserve Program in the US than exists in the Ukraine and requested some of those acres be released for planting to help ease the potential loss of Ukrainian grain on the world market. As of this time, the Agricultural Department has denied all requests (here, here, and here). Then we have oligarchs like Bill Gates who have purchased up tons of farm land with the stated intention of moving it to non-food green crops (here). It is like they want the food shortages to be permanent.
If you are in America, there is still some time, not much, but some. Have a plan to get out of cities, know who your people are and what skills they bring to the table, and know beyond any doubt how you will feed yourself and your family in the future. It will cost 2-3X as much to do it now as it would have just a year or two ago, but if you don’t, odds are it won’t go well for you in the case of any serious emergency or the apparent coming food shortage.
Matthew 24:4-8
New International Version
4 Jesus answered: “Watch out that no one deceives you. 5 For many will come in my name, claiming, ‘I am the Messiah,’ and will deceive many. 6 You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. 7 Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom. There will be famines and earthquakes in various places. 8 All these are the beginning of birth pains.
God Bless you,
-Sam
The excess of heat and drought trashed my garden beds this summer. Then finally, it was coming back with the 80-degree temps, only to freeze to death the other night.
You paint a very bleak picture here. I hope you’re being overly pessimistic, but it’s still better to be prepared unnecessarily than the other way around.